Supermarket prices fell for the third consecutive month in June, according to data from the British Retail Consortium, as the easing of global commodity prices and reduced energy costs began to feed through to the weekly shop. The average price of a basket of 500 common grocery items was 1.8% lower in June than in the same month last year — the largest year-on-year fall since 2016.
The biggest falls were in fresh produce, dairy, and cooking oils, all of which had seen sharp price increases during the inflation surge of 2022 and 2023. Meat prices remain elevated compared to pre-inflation levels, but are falling on a year-on-year basis for the first time since 2021.
What It Means for Households
For a typical family spending £120 per week on groceries, the fall in prices represents a saving of approximately £2.16 per week compared to a year ago — or around £112 per year. While welcome, this is modest compared to the cumulative increase in food prices over the past three years, which the ONS estimates at approximately 28% in total.
Consumer groups have welcomed the trend but cautioned against complacency. "Prices are falling, but they are falling from a very high base," said the director of a leading consumer advocacy organisation. "Households are still spending significantly more on food than they were in 2021, and many are still struggling."
The Supermarket Response
The major supermarkets have been competing aggressively on price, with several launching new own-label ranges and price-matching schemes in response to the cost-of-living pressure on their customers. The market share of discount retailers has stabilised after several years of strong growth, suggesting that some shoppers are returning to the major chains as prices fall.